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English to Spanish: Beyond the Spanish equity frenzy
Source text - English Despite Spanish equity market’s stellar performance this year – IBEX 35 reached an all-time high on November 7th - doubts are starting to emerge about sustainability of such returns. Spanish economy, which in the past five years has enjoyed GDP growth twice that of the G7 nations is said to be at risk. Country’s current account deficit (10% of GDP in Q106) is now one of the largest and its dependence on construction (11% of GDP) constitutes a threat in a higher interest rate environment. Can these levels be sustained? We believe that investors are buying Spanish equities on a speculative premium rather than on sound fundamentals.
Spanish economy has remained robust in 2006, growing at a strong pace and well above its European counterparts. This dynamic has been underpinned by structural reforms that created a solid basis for future growth. More recently, the Spanish economy has been also supported by an intense migration flow (immigrants currently represent roughly 10% of the total population) that has surged domestic demand in all components while increasing productivity. Albeit GDP is projected to decrease to 3.4% next year (from 3.8% in 2006), it is still way above the European average (2.4%) and overall we believe that positive momentum should continue into 2007 and we foresee the maintenance of a resilient consumption, healthy investment and higher exports.
However, we believe that there remain some downside risks to this growth scenario, especially those associated to the quick expansion of the household indebtness or the continuing loss of Spanish exports’ competitiveness. Conventional wisdom is that it will be the housing market that eventually tips Spain over the edge. But, we would still continue to warn that it is the corporate sector that poses more of a threat to the outlook for the Spanish economy. Spanish non-financial corporations are running a deficit of around 7.5% of GDP.
Translation - Spanish A pesar del espectacular comportamiento del mercado bursátil español este año (el IBEX 35 marcó un máximo histórico el 7 de noviembre), están empezando a surgir dudas sobre la sostenibilidad de estos rendimientos. Según algunos analistas, la economía española, que en los últimos cinco años ha crecido el doble que las de los países del G7 en términos de PIB, puede estar en peligro. El déficit por cuenta corriente de España (el 10% del PIB en 1T06) es actualmente uno de los más abultados y su dependencia de la construcción (el 11% del PIB) supone una amenaza en un ciclo de aumentos de tipos de interés. ¿Pueden sostenerse estos niveles de crecimiento? Creemos que los inversores están comprando títulos españoles de renta variable por motivos especulativos y no por la existencia de fundamentales sólidos.
La economía española se ha mantenido firme en 2006, al crecer a un ritmo constante y muy superior a sus homólogas europeas, un dinamismo sustentado por ciertas reformas estructurales que sentaron las bases del futuro crecimiento. En los últimos años, la economía española también se ha visto favorecida por un intenso flujo migratorio (los inmigrantes actualmente representan alrededor de un 10% de la población total) que ha disparado la demanda interior en todos sus componentes, aumentando al mismo tiempo la productividad. Aunque se estima que el PIB disminuirá al 3,4% el próximo año (respecto al 3,8% en 2006), seguirá situándose por encima de la media europea (2,4%) y, en general, creemos que la buena racha continuará en 2007, si se mantiene el resistente consumo, la fuerte inversión y las mayores exportaciones, tal como prevemos.
Ahora bien, en nuestra opinión, aún persisten ciertos riesgos de depreciación en este escenario de bonanza, especialmente los asociados a la rápida expansión del endeudamiento de las familias o la continua pérdida de competitividad de los exportadores españoles. Generalmente se cree que será el mercado inmobiliario el que finalmente ponga en apuros a España. Sin embargo, nosotros seguimos advirtiendo de que es el sector empresarial el que plantea más amenazas a las perspectivas de la economía española. Las entidades no financieras españolas están operando con un déficit próximo al 7,5% del PIB.
Senior financial translator EN>SP and Economist, backed by over 27 years' experience.
I work on a freelance basis for various translation companies and direct
clients, most of them based in Spain, Ireland, the UK and the US.
Major assignments I usually undertake include those ultimately provided
by global banks, IBEX-listed companies, fund management companies, audit
firms, human resources firms and insurance companies, to mention but a few.
I sustain my work on ethical and professional
standards, always committed to meeting the client's deadline and highly
responsive to his/her needs. Every project is subject to a NDA which is
entered into by and between the client and myself. On-going self-training
through feedback from customers, gathering of new/tricky terms and
expressions which are properly documented, own glossaries made from past
approved translations and third-party terminology corpus and TMs. Never stop
learning.
I’ve completed over two thousand translation
projects to date from a wide range of industries and topics. Areas of expertise include, but not limited to:
Member since Jan '05
